Sonke sifuna ukwazi ngoku ukuba ngubani oza kuphumelela unyulo luka-2020. Ngapha koko, ndingavuya ndenze ixesha lokurhawula kwaye nditsibe ukuya ku-3 kaNovemba kwangoko ukuba into enjalo ibisemandleni am. Kodwa ayisiyiyo, ke sishiyeke sibukele ngokungakhathali (kodwa singazithembi ngokupheleleyo) iipolisi kwaye sijonge uqikelelo lweengcali ezithi zinike umbono wokuba ziyazi ukuba zithetha ngantoni.
Ingcali enjalo nguAllan Lichtman, umbhali-mbali oye waxela kwangaphambili impumelelo yoonyulo luka-Mongameli * ukusukela ngo-1986. Bush. Ngoku uLichtman ubuyile ukubhengeza ukhetho lakhe kwividiyo emnandi evela INew York Times.
Siza kukugcinela ixhala kunye nexesha ngokukuxelela isiphelo afikelela kuso emva kokuthetha ngeendlela zakhe okwexeshana: UJoe Biden uzophumelela ubongameli. Phew.
Kuyathuthuzela oko, kodwa kufanelekile ukuvavanya indlela kaLichtman, ayiphuhlisileyo malunga nozinzo xa kuthelekiswa nenyikima yezopolitiko kwaye ayisekelwanga kwiipoll. Endaweni yoko, isekwe kwizinto ezili-13 azibizayo Izitshixo zeNdlu yeWhite House. Le ndlela ayiphuhliswanga yingcali yeenkcukacha-manani kodwa yingcali kwiinyikima zomhlaba: uVladimir Kellis-Borok, umseki weZiko laMazwe ngaMazwe loQikelelo lweNyikima kunye neMathematics Geophysics.
I-Lichtman's Keys ibilise ezantsi kwiingxelo ezilishumi elinesithathu. Ukuba uninzi luthathwa njengolungeyonyani umgqatswa okwiqela elisezikhundleni uya kuphumelela kunyulo. Izitshixo ze-Theses azinanto yakwenza namaphulo okanye ukusebenza kwengxoxo, kodwa malunga nokusebenza kukamongameli kunye neqela elisesikhundleni ngakumbi, ngakumbi kuqoqosho, uzinzo kwezentlalo, kunye nobudlelwane bamanye amazwe. Nazi iingxelo eziphambili kunye nendlela ezinxibelelana ngayo neTrump kunye neBiden.
- Umbutho obambeleyo ufumene izihlalo kunyulo lwaphakathi enyakeni. BUBUXOKI.
- Kwakungekho mceli-mngeni uphambili kwiqela elalisesikhundleni. YINYANISO.
- Umgqatswa obambeleyo kwiqela lakhe ngumongameli wangoku. YINYANISO.
- Akukho mntu ubalulekileyo wesithathu okanye umgqatswa ozimeleyo. YINYANISO. (Uxolo, Kanye)
- Uqoqosho alukho kuqoqosho ngexesha lephulo. BUBUXOKI.
- Uqoqosho lujamelene nokukhula kwexesha elide. BUBUXOKI.
- Ulawulo olusesikhundleni lwenze utshintsho olukhulu kumgaqo-nkqubo. YINYANISO.
- Akukho zingxwabangxwaba zentlalo kwikota yokugqibela. BUBUXOKI.
- Akukho sihlazo siphambili kulawulo olusesikhundleni. BUBUXOKI.
- Ulawulo olusebenzayo aluzange lusilele kakhulu kumazwe angaphandle okanye emkhosini. YINYANISO.
- Abaphetheyo babephumelele kwamanye amazwe okanye kwezomkhosi. BUBUXOKI.
- Umgqatswa weqela elisesikhundleni ubambekile. BUBUXOKI.
- Umceli mngeni akacharismatic. YINYANISO.
Elo linqaku lesixhenxe leBiden kunye nesithandathu kuTrump oko kuthetha ukuba ngumzekelo kaLichtman, uya kuphumelela. Kwaye uya kuqaphela ii-asterisk ezimbini kwizigqibo ezimbalwa ezenziwe ngu-Lichtman kuba andiqinisekanga ukuba bayabamba.
Okokuqala: Akukho zintsilelo zangaphandle okanye zomkhosi. Nangona uTrump engakhange alahlekelwe yimfazwe okanye idabi, wonakalise kakhulu i-Unites States 'ukuma kwinqanaba lehlabathi. Ubongameli bakhe bonke bunokubonwa njengokungaphumeleli komgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle, ukusuka ekuqubudeni kwakhe eRussia, ukwala kwakhe ukutshintsha kwemozulu, kunye nokuphatha gwenxa ingxaki ye-coronavirus, enefuthe kwilizwe jikelele. Ndingathanda ukubiza le ibubuxoki, kwaye ndinike uBiden elinye inqaku endaweni yakhe.
Okwesibini, into charisma. Ngelixa uBiden engadibanisi okanye eyoyikisayo njengoTrump, ungoyena mntu udumileyo kwaye uthathelwa ingqalelo ngokubanzi. Uyinkcazo yokuba ndingathanda ukufumana ibhiya kunye naye okanye kwimeko kaBiden, i-ice cream cone. Ukwa hlangothi kwaye unomdla ngokwaneleyo ukuba uninzi lukaTrump luzama ukumpeyinta ngeendlela ezithile ezingalunganga azisebenzi nje, ngenxa yoko eli nqanaba linokuya eBiden.
Kananjalo, nangona uLichtman enobunzima kuzo zonke izinto zakhe ngokulinganayo, inokwenzeka into yokuba uqoqosho kunye nezidubedube zentlalo ngoku zibi kakhulu kangangokuba kufuneka bafumane ubunzima obongezelelekileyo, obuya kuphinda buzise isikali kuBiden nangakumbi.
Konke oku kuyathuthuzela, kodwa uLichtman ngokwakhe ulumkisa ukuba inkqubo yakhe ayiphenduli kuxinzelelo lwabavoti kunye nokuphazamiseka konyulo lwangaphandle. Kwaye ukuba kukho nantoni na esiyifundileyo kwi-2016, kukungaze ukhululeke okanye ubhiyozele kwakamsinya. Kwaye ke, akufuneki sithembele kumfana omnye. Emva kwayo yonke loo nto, i-octopus eqikelela ukuba abaphumeleleyo kwindebe yehlabathi ayikabeki mlinganiso okwangoku asinakuqiniseka ngenene ngaso nasiphi na isiphumo.
U-Lichtman ngokwakhe uphelisa uqikelelo lwakhe ngesicatshulwa esifanelekileyo rhoqo (kodwa mhlawumbi ngokungachanekanga ) ku-Abraham Lincoln: Eyona ndlela yokuqikelela ikamva kukuyila. Phuma uye kuvota.
(nge INew York Times , Umfanekiso: UFrederic J. Brown / AFP; (Drew Angerer / Getty Izithombe)
Ngaba ufuna amanye amabali anje? Yiba ngumbhalisi kwaye uxhase indawo!
-UMary Sue unemigaqo-nkqubo engqongqo yokuphawula engavumiyo, kodwa ayikhawulelwanga, ukuthukwa nabani na , Intiyo nentetho egonyamelayo. —
